A0958
Title: A Bayesian approach to produce subnational population estimates using a population base statistical register
Authors: Jairo Fuquene - UC Davis (United States) [presenting]
Abstract: Subnational population estimates (SPE) in Latin America are useful to implement new public policies in subnational areas with internal armed conflicts or difficult to access. The aim is to propose to combine a Population Base Statistical Register (PBSR) and the Official Population Projections (OPP) using a Bayesian approach to produce SPE. The proposed procedures are useful for computing the SPE of the population size or the SPE of the population size in percentage SPE (\%). However, the focus is on SPE (\%) due to some data restrictions and to ensure data confidentiality. The PBSR is constructed using multiple administrative sources with registers from the health, education, vital statistics systems, tax registration, and, more importantly, the registers of the victims of the current internal armed conflict in Colombia. New fast Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are also proposed to produce SPE (\%) using data augmentation procedures to address the complications caused by the resulting joint posterior containing gamma functions. The proposal is implemented to compute SPE (\%) by age and sex groups in the municipality of Jamundi in Colombia, which is currently affected by poverty, forced displacement, and the internal armed conflict, and the accuracy is evaluated with a Population Census.
