A0937
Title: Identifying match-fixing in professional football through in-play market dynamics
Authors: David Winkelmann - Bielefeld University (Germany) [presenting]
Maya Natascha Vienken - Bielefeld University (Germany)
Roland Langrock - Bielefeld University (Germany)
Christian Deutscher - Bielefeld University (Germany)
Abstract: Match-fixing poses a significant threat to the integrity of sports by eroding public trust and undermining the commercial viability of the industry. The rise of global sports betting markets has increased opportunities for match-fixing due to the ease of access and high market liquidity, necessitating advanced detection systems. Considering the Italian Serie B, a football league historically associated with confirmed match-fixing incidents, detailed second-by-second betting volume data is utilized from a major European bookmaker to monitor market dynamics throughout a match. The goal is to explore the potential of leveraging in-match betting data to identify suspicious behaviors among market participants that may indicate match manipulation. Specifically, time series models are applied, and residual analyses are conducted to detect deviations from typical betting patterns. The approach aims to enhance the detection of anomalies that could signify match-fixing, thereby contributing to more robust safeguarding of sports integrity.
