A0807
Title: Climate-driven shockwaves along the futures curve
Authors: Susana Campos Martins - Catholic University of Portugal (Portugal) [presenting]
Filippo Pellegrino - LSE; Now-Casting Economics (United Kingdom)
Jose Afonso Faias - Catholic University of Portugal (Portugal)
Abstract: Climate-driven disasters are increasingly disrupting global commodity supply chains, yet the transmission of these shocks beyond the spot market remains poorly understood. The aim is to pioneer a granular, county-level geospatial dataset that maps production sites, storage facilities, and transport hubs for key energy commodities from 1970 to 2025. By aligning these locations with high-resolution records of major climate and weather disasters, long-standing data constraints are overcome that have sidelined commodities from mainstream climate finance. Building on the theory of storage, it is quantified how climate-driven disasters jointly affect spot prices and the convenience yield, revealing under what conditions long-dated futures rise above pre-shock levels following a disruption.
