A0776
Title: Fiscal rules, debt surprises, and stock flow adjustments
Authors: Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro - International Monetary Fund (United States) [presenting]
Abstract: The purpose is to analyze whether fiscal rules reduce forecast errors on public debt and its components, in particular, stock-flow adjustments. Using multi-year forecasts from annual vintages of the IMF's World Economic Outlook database for 176 countries during 1996-2023, it is shown that countries with fiscal rules in place have a more accurate projection of stock-flow adjustments. Moreover, governments that comply with their fiscal rules have a more predictable public debt trajectory. These findings indicate the importance of the public financial management institutions related to fiscal rules, such as those reporting and monitoring compliance with the rules.
