A0576
Title: Modelling climate heterogeneity using an unconditional quantile vector error correction approach
Authors: Jesus Gonzalo - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Spain) [presenting]
Lola Gadea - University of Zaragoza (Spain)
Andrey Ramos - Carlos III University of Madrid (Spain)
Abstract: Understanding the uneven spatial and temporal patterns of climate change is essential for assessing its broader societal and economic implications. A novel quantitative framework is presented based on an unconditional quantile vector error correction model (QVECM). In this approach, the unconditional quantiles of temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations are modeled as co-trending variables, consistent with the dynamics of a standard climate one-dimensional energy balance model (1-EBM). The QVECM framework enables: Estimation of diverse climate sensitivity parameters across the temperature distribution; Identification of warming amplification effects; Introduction of a Quantile Permanent-Transitory Decomposition (QPT), which separates the long-term drivers of climate change from short-term fluctuations. The permanent component identified by the QPT highlights the fundamental forces driving persistent warming trends. These insights are critical for informing the design of effective climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.
