A0322
Title: On some mobility measures for Markov processes with application to a wind-power production
Authors: Guglielmo Damico - University G. d\'Annunzio of Chieti-Pescara (Italy) [presenting]
Abstract: The rate of occurrence of failures (ROCOF) is a standard metric for evaluating system performance over time, but it falls short in capturing a system's instantaneous behavior. Three new complementary indicators are introduced: Rate of occurrence of repairs (ROCOR), rate of inoccurrence (ROI), and total mobility rate (TMR), to provide a richer, time-dependent view of system reliability, especially in Markov systems. ROCOR quantifies the system's immediate tendency to transition from failure to working states. ROI measures the likelihood of remaining within the current subset of states (working or failed). TMR integrates ROCOF, ROCOR, and ROI to reflect the system's overall dynamism. Explicit formulas are derived for these metrics in the context of Markov models. Their practical value is demonstrated through a real-world application to wind farm management, where these indicators reveal nuanced operational differences between sites that share similar long-term wind profiles.
