A1481
Title: Industrial natural gas demand in selected MENA countries. CCE-MG coupled with Autometrics-a machine learning algorithm
Authors: Fakhri Hasanov - KAPSARC (Saudi Arabia) [presenting]
Abstract: Industrial natural gas demand is examined in selected MENA countries using both panel and country-level analyses. We apply the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCE-MG) estimator and Autometrics, a machine-learning algorithm, under super-saturation. Data for Algeria, Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the UAE span 19902022, subject to availability. We estimate demand elasticities to assess the roles of price, industrial output, fuel substitution, and unobserved global/regional factors. Results show a positive income effect and a negative own-price effect across all countries, consistent with demand theory. Income elasticity ranges from 2.96 in Bahrain to 0.23 in Kuwait, with a panel value of 1.10. Own-price elasticity is inelastic, from 0.004 in Kuwait to 0.58 in Bahrain, with a panel value of 0.30. Cross-price effects vary: electricity prices raise gas demand in Algeria and Egypt, while gasoil prices matter in Algeria, Oman, and the UAE. Common global and regional factors significantly influence demand in Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman.
