A1338
Title: Assessing political, economic, and environmental drivers of fire activity in the Brazilian Amazon
Authors: Ilka van de Werve - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (Netherlands) [presenting]
Thales Pupo West - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (Netherlands)
Niek Scherpenhuijzen - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (Netherlands)
Abstract: The purpose is to examine the impact of political conditions on fire activity in the Brazilian Amazon, while controlling for economic and environmental circumstances. A state space model is specified with stochastic level and seasonal components using monthly data. Explanatory variables include an intervention variable for right-wing presidencies (allowing for anticipation effects), total precipitation, and growth in international commodity prices, alongside the exchange rate and inflation. Economic variables are smoothed by averaging price growth over short, medium, and long lag windows. It is found that periods of right-wing presidencies are associated with more forest fires in Brazil, a pattern not observed in control countries Peru and Colombia. Precipitation is negatively associated with fire activity. Moreover, results suggest that farmers do not respond directly to price changes but do so in the longer run, in a positive direction. Outliers and structural breaks can be explained by weather conditions and the early months of Bolsonaro's presidency.
