A1128
Title: Estimating all-cause excess mortality in the Philippines (2020 to 2023) using the Farrington algorithm
Authors: Rutcher Lacaza - University of the Philippines (Philippines) [presenting]
Abstract: Excess mortality estimates have been widely used to assess the impact of COVID-19 on deaths during and after the pandemic. Excess deaths in the Philippines from 2020 to 2023 were estimated using weekly all-cause deaths data from the Philippine Statistics Authority, with a focus on the later stages of the pandemic and the post-emergency period. The Farrington model, a quasi-Poisson regression approach, was applied to account for seasonal variation and overdispersion. Excess deaths were assessed across two periods: During the pandemic (1 January 2020 to 7 May 2023) and after the lifting of the emergency (8 May to 31 December 2023), disaggregated by age, sex, and province. Results show no significant excess mortality in 2020, followed by a rise in 2021, and peaking in 2022 before declining in 2023. Excess deaths were highest among those aged 60 and above, with males slightly more affected than females. By 2022, all provinces recorded positive excess mortality. Comparing the post-emergency period with prior years shows the highest percentage of excess mortality in 2022. The findings highlight the importance of continuous mortality monitoring, refinement of statistical methods, and improvements in death registration systems to fully assess the extent of epidemics on mortality.
