A1063
Title: The impact of climate on respiratory drug demand in Greece: A multi-method modelling approach
Authors: Matteo Farne - University of Bologna (Italy) [presenting]
Viviana Schisa - University of Bologna (Italy)
Abstract: Climate change poses a growing challenge to public health, yet its impact on pharmaceutical demand remains largely overlooked. The aim is to examine the relationship between climate variability and the weekly consumption of prescription respiratory drugs in Greece. Using high-frequency panel data from 20 regions (2016-2023), a multi-method approach is adopted. Structural breaks are first identified in drug demand, identifying a sharp decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a gradual post-pandemic recovery. Causal relationships are then investigated between climate variables and drug use through spectral Granger causality, uncovering frequency-specific associations that inform model selection and forecasting design. Building on these insights, several forecasting models are developed and compared, including VARX, random forests with moving block bootstrap, and LSTM neural networks. To complement this, a fixed effects lag-distributed regression model that captures the dynamic response is estimated to climate variability while accounting for unobserved spatial and temporal heterogeneity. A spatial lag specification is also employed to detect interregional spillovers in pharmaceutical consumption. Results show that climate variables significantly enhance prediction accuracy, underscoring their value for pharmaceutical planning. Anticipating climate-sensitive demand is key to strengthening healthcare system resilience under evolving environmental pressures.
