A1936
Title: A framework for estimating lifetime disability trajectories and costs via survival extrapolation
Authors: Wei-Ming Wang - Fu Jen Catholic University (Taiwan) [presenting]
Abstract: An analytical framework for estimating Lifetime Disability trajectories and related costs from administrative data via survival extrapolation is proposed. Using longitudinal Disability records, the framework combines observed Disability histories with extrapolated survival functions to estimate the expected duration that patients spend in different Functional Disability states over their remaining Lifetime. The Lifetime Distribution of Functional Disability Years (LDFY) is constructed as a summary measure of the long-term Functional burden of disease. As an illustrative application, patients with spinal cord injury identified from Taiwan Disability registry records are analyzed and their Lifetime Years spent in mild, moderate, severe, and profound Disability states are estimated. The framework can be extended to estimate Disability-state-specific Lifetime costs by incorporating subsidy, care, or other cost-related administrative data. This approach demonstrates how routinely collected administrative records can be used to quantify long-term Functional outcomes and resource needs in disease populations.
