A1733
Title: A Bayesian frailty model for the timing of corner kicks in association football
Authors: Riley Isaacs - Simon Fraser University (Canada) [presenting]
Abstract: Corner kicks are becoming an increasingly important event in soccer because they are often the result of strong attacking play and can be of keen interest to sports fans and bettors. The current Premier League season (2026) is seeing goals generated by corner kicks make up the highest proportion of goals in a decade. Corner kick data are framed as right-censored event times, and the mixture feature of corner kick times caused by previous corner kicks is formulated to explore patterns of corner kicks associated with several factors. A frailty model is introduced to account for the correlation between the timing of corner kicks taken by the same team and within the same game. An analysis of the corner kicks in the 2019 season of the Chinese Super League is conducted in the Bayesian paradigm to provide an alternative view on factor effects.
