A1561
Title: Effects of gender imbalance within and across generations: Men's marrying up and family dynamics
Authors: Yanjun Li - Tohoku University (Japan) [presenting]
Midori Wakabayashi - Tohoku University (Japan)
Yu Bai - Tohoku University (Japan)
Abstract: The aim is to examine the short-run and intergenerational consequences of male scarcity induced by World War II on marriage market sorting, household outcomes, and children's development. Using prefecture-level variation in wartime male mortality to identify shifts in local gender ratios, three sets of findings emerge. First, male scarcity shifted assortative matching toward hypergamy, with men increasingly marrying women of higher social status and education. Second, despite improving men's position in the marriage market, this demographic shock increased men's bargaining power within households, constraining wives' post-marriage labor force participation while raising fertility and divorce rates. Third, children born into these mismatched households experienced lower educational attainment and weaker labor market outcomes. These intergenerational effects are concentrated among boys and are more pronounced in resource-constrained regions, consistent with limited institutional capacity to absorb demographic shocks. Together, these findings demonstrate how a temporary demographic disruption can become embedded in persistent shifts in household power structures and intergenerational mobility.
