A1278
Title: Heatwave-induced asymmetry in price transmission across marketing stages
Authors: Hyoeun Sun - Korea University (Korea, South) [presenting]
Dong Hee Suh - Korea University (Korea, South)
Abstract: The aim is to examine how heatwaves shape asymmetric price transmission along vegetable marketing stages. Using daily farm-gate, wholesale, and retail prices for Korean cabbage, machine learning techniques are applied to assess the relative importance of climate variables. These models capture nonlinearities and complex interactions in temperature dynamics. Building on this evidence, a heatwave intensity index is constructed and incorporated into a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework to model asymmetric price transmission. Price changes are decomposed into positive and negative components and further separated into heatwave-induced and non-climate-driven movements, allowing extreme heat to influence both the magnitude and speed of price pass-through. The findings are expected to show that heatwaves amplify farm-level price increases and accelerate transmission to wholesale markets, while retail pass-through remains incomplete. The findings further suggest that intensifying future heatwaves may strengthen asymmetric transmission, thereby redistributing climate-related price risk along the marketing chain.
