A0302
Title: Synthetic historical control for policy evaluation
Authors: Jui-Chung Yang - National Taiwan University (Taiwan) [presenting]
Yi-Ting Chen - National Taiwan University (Taiwan)
Tzu-Ting Yang - Anademia Sinica (Taiwan)
Abstract: A synthetic historical control method is proposed for policy evaluation without relying on cross-sectional untreated units. The approach builds upon a semi-parametric time-series regression and adapts the conventional synthetic control method by replacing cross-sectional untreated units with historical units. It is demonstrated that the proposed method is approximately unbiased for estimating the intervention effects. Additionally, its effectiveness is shown through both simulation studies and real-world empirical applications. This method offers a valuable alternative for estimating causal effects in scenarios where suitable cross-sectional control units are unavailable.
