A1281
Title: A self organized criticality model of extreme events and cascading disasters
Authors: Mary Lai Salvana - (United States) [presenting]
Abstract: Critical infrastructure networks, including transportation, power grids, and communication systems, exhibit complex interdependencies that can trigger cascading failures with catastrophic consequences. These cascades often result from the combined effects of fragile, efficiency-optimized systems and the rising intensity of localized extreme weather events. Traditional risk assessments fall short in capturing the nonlinear dynamics and emergent behaviors as such systems approach critical thresholds. This paper introduces a novel model grounded in Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) theory to analyze cascading failure dynamics in infrastructure networks. Using a detailed case study of the U.S. airline transportation system, we demonstrate how SOC models reproduce the power-law distribution of disruptions and long-tail risk of systemic collapse, capturing the interplay between internal fragility and external shocks. Our framework enables quantitative assessment of network vulnerability, identification of critical nodes, and evaluation of proactive strategies for disaster risk reduction. The SOC approach offers a robust foundation for resilience planning and provides actionable tools to anticipate and mitigate systemic risks in complex infrastructure systems.
