A1249
Title: Forecasting bilateral migration in the European Union by sex
Authors: Arkadiusz Wisniowski - University of Manchester (United Kingdom) [presenting]
Abstract: Bilateral international migration estimates and forecasts are needed to study population change, test existing and develop new theories on migration, and inform planners and policymakers. Forecasts disaggregated by sex are available, but these typically rely on cohort-component methods and independent or joint time series forecasting. We develop an approach to forecasting the 'migration gender gap', that is, the proportion of migration of men being larger than migration of women, conditional on variables available in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We produce forecasts jointly for all countries of the European Union, with measures of uncertainty.
