A1077
Title: European consumer inflation expectations accuracy: The impact of learning and demographics
Authors: Robert Anderson - Newcastle Univeristy (United Kingdom) [presenting]
Abstract: Using a new dataset of consumer inflation expectations across 11 European countries, the focus is on whether the accuracy of these forecasts depends upon both the demographic characteristics of the individual and whether the individual learns about inflation having been surveyed previously. The analysis accounts for several estimation challenges resulting from the data: Attrition, individual forecast error correlations, and the non-standard distribution of forecast errors. Having controlled for these issues, the results find strong evidence that demographic characteristics and learning play a role in the forecasting processes of European consumers.
