A1054
Title: Population projections and policy recommendations for China (2025-2100)
Authors: Lei Chen - Southwestern University of Finance and Economics (China) [presenting]
Abstract: Currently, China is facing the challenges of low fertility rates and an aging population. How these trends evolve in the future will be crucial for economic and social development. Using the cohort-component method, this report projects the total population, births, deaths, and the degree of aging in China from 2025 to 2100 under various fertility rate scenarios. It is found that maintaining the current total fertility rate will lead to a population decrease to 460 million by 2100, with only 1.93 million births and an aging rate of 39.2\%. If the total fertility rate declines to the level of South Korea in 2023 (0.72), the population will further decrease, exacerbating demographic structure issues. Conversely, a 25\% increase in the total fertility rate to 1.31 will significantly improve both population size and structure. Additionally, policy responses are reviewed to low fertility and high aging from Japan and South Korea, and corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.
