A1032
Title: Finding the European crime drop using a panel data model with stochastic trends
Authors: Ilka van de Werve - VU Amsterdam (Netherlands) [presenting]
Siem Jan Koopman - VU Amsterdam (The Netherlands)
Abstract: A new panel data model is developed with stochastically time-varying trends to empirically verify the possible existence of a European crime drop based on homicide rates from the mortality database of the World Health Organization. Different levels of pooling in the panel structures are considered, and it is shown that less pooling reveals more interesting features in the data. Extensions of the model with macroeconomic regression effects and a second trend for East-European countries are also considered. The empirical findings show strong support for a European crime drop which coincides with the well-documented US crime drop.
