A0785
Title: Forecasting sectoral greenhouse gas emissions for a global sample
Authors: Lukas Vashold - Vienna University of Economics and Business (Austria) [presenting]
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma - Vienna University of Economics and Business (Austria)
Abstract: Effectively tackling climate change requires sound knowledge about its driving forces, namely greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions, and their sources. We use a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate time series model for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, population and sectoral emissions intensity across countries, in the spirit of a country- and sector-specific Kaya's identity. Conditioning on established projections in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), we derive predictions for sectoral GHG emissions for the period until 2050. Results show that yearly GHG emissions are increasing strongly in the next three decades. Increases are mainly driven by emerging and developing economies where the reduction of emissions intensity is not fast enough to outweigh increases in affluence and population. Emissions related to the energy sector account for most of the growth, followed by industrial sources. The majority of already advanced economies show reductions in overall GHG emissions as well as in most sectors. However, we also document that emissions in the transport sector are still to rise in these countries given rather slow technological progress and uptake thereof. Our predictions show that limiting global warming to levels agreed to under the Paris agreement is unlikely in the absence of further efforts to decarbonise.
