A0422
Title: Bayesian estimation versus maximum likelihood estimation in the Weibull-power law process
Authors: Alicja Jokiel-Rokita - Wroclaw University of Science and Technology (Poland) [presenting]
Ryszard Magiera - Wroclaw University of Technology (Poland)
Abstract: The Bayesian approach is applied to the estimation of the Weibull-power law process (WPLP) parameters as an alternative to the maximum likelihood (ML) method in the case when the number of events is small. For the process model considered, we propose to apply the independent Jeffreys prior distribution and we argue that this is a useful choice. Comparisons were also made between the accuracy of the estimators obtained and those obtained by using other priors -- informative and weakly informative. The investigations show that the Bayesian approach in many cases of a fairly broad collection of WPLP models can lead to the Bayes estimators that are more accurate than the corresponding ML ones when the number of events is small. The problem of fitting the WPLP models, based on ML and Bayes estimators, to some real data is also considered. It is shown that the TTT-concept, used in the reliability theory, is not fully useful for the WPLP models, and it may be so for some other trend-renewal processes. In order to assess the accuracy of the fitting to the real data considered, two other graphical methods are introduced.
