Title: The temperature of Indian cities: Some insights using change point analysis with functional data
Authors: Poonam Rathi - N/A (India) [presenting]
Abstract: In recent years there has been considerable concern expressed worldwide regarding increase in temperature popularly called the global warming problem. However, not much work has been done on this in the Indian context. We examine monthly temperature data of five Indian cities for the period 1961 to 2013. We introduce a new change point detection method for functional data and use it to investigate the existence of change point for the temperature data series of five Indian cities namely Srinagar, Imphal, Trivandrum, Bengaluru and Ahmedabad. It is found that there has been a rise in the average temperature for all cities except Ahmedabad during this period. The magnitude of warming is found not to be uniform but vary across cities. The estimated change points for the four cities are not identical but all are in the period 1989 - 1998. The findings suggest that immediate policy measures are required to ensure that no further warming happens in these cities.