B1322
Title: A multivariate space-time dynamic model for characterizing downstream impacts of geoengineering events
Authors: Lyndsay Shand - Sandia National Laboratories (United States) [presenting]
Gabriel Huerta - Sandia National Laboratories (United States)
Abstract: Downstream impacts of climate events, such as changes in the earth's net radiative balance and temperatures that occur following a geoengineering event, are inherently correlated processes. The relationship of such dependent processes at a global scale is often asymmetric and spatially varying. A model is proposed, suitable for characterizing space-time correlations between climate impacts following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo Eruption, a natural geoengineering analogue. A novel multivariate dynamic linear model is proposed using a multiresolution basis function representation to model downstream climate impacts following the eruption jointly. Spatial variation is modelled using the flexible multiresolution basis functions proposed in latticeKrig. At the same time, multivariate correlations are accounted for via a vector autoregression (VAR) model on the basis of coefficients. The model is estimated within a Bayesian hierarchical framework, and for computational tractability, it relies on filtering methods to estimate our time-varying basis coefficients. The resulting model allows characterizing the changes in the dependent climate processes across space during and following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated on both simulated and observed datasets.
