A0677
Title: Local warming: The globe vs Spain
Authors: Jesus Gonzalo - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Spain)
Lola Gadea - University of Zaragoza (Spain) [presenting]
Abstract: Climate change and one of its main consequences, global warming, is a phenomenon that affects the whole planet, but the regional effects can be dramatic and require specific policies. Therefore, the analysis of Local warming is a fundamental complementary aspect of global warming which needs to be taken into account in the design of effective policies. The objective is to analyze Local Warming in the southernmost region of Europe which, according to all forecasts, will suffer the most adverse effects of climate change. Applying a previous methodology for studying the presence of increasing trends in the entire distribution of the temperature and not only in the mean, we also identify different types of warming. The empirical results obtained using different samples and time periods show, although with geographical nuances, a very clear warming and acceleration effect with increasing trends in all quantiles of the temperature distribution and an increase in dispersion due to the greater intensity of warming in the right upper tail of the distribution. This result differs from those found for the planet as a whole, and especially in the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere (the Arctic, the UK, etc). The type of global warming found previously can have unpredictable global consequences, but the type found here can have devastating local effects. For this reason, we need to think globally, and to act locally.
