A0581
Title: Forecasting the climate change risk by sea-level rises using time-varying extreme value analysis
Authors: Laura Garcia-Jorcano - Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (Spain) [presenting]
Lidia Sanchis-Marco - University of Castilla-La Mancha (Spain)
Abstract: One of the most significant potential impacts of climate change is the sea-level rise. A better understanding and measurement of extreme sea-level rise benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Using the global and regional mean sea-level rise (mm) every 10 days (Dic/1992-Oct/2020), we propose two new measures, Extreme Sea-Level Value at Rise (ExSLVaR) and Extreme Sea-Level Expected Rise (ExSLER) for forecasting extreme mean sea-level at 10 days and at 1 month calculated for 8 seas/oceans of the Earth using extreme value theory and filtered historical simulation approach. We also obtain time-varying mean sea-level rise projections for 10-80-280 years, reaching levels of 9.5 meters for 2300 for the Atlantic Ocean. The main evidence shows different regional and global forecasts. Both measures enable us to calculate the dynamic risk of extreme sea-level rise in the coastal cities/countries of these oceans/seas. Finally, we analyze the connection between our measures and financial risk in different sectors. Both measures capture more risk in sectors such as energy, and oil gas, especially in the current COVID-19 period. The results can serve as valuable inputs for these sectors in different cities/countries in deciding how much risk they are willing to accept, and consequently how much adaptation they need depending on the risk aversion of their decision-makers.
