A0335
Title: Global, hemispheric, and zonal temperature anomalies: How different are they, and what does this mean
Authors: Marc Gronwald - International Business School Suzhou (China) [presenting]
Abstract: The empirical properties of three important climate time series are analyzed: global, and hemispheric, and zonal temperature anomalies. First, the motivation is the recent observation that temperature anomalies in the Northern and Southern hemispheres seem to be governed by different stochastic processes. Second, recent theoretical research has shown that insufficiently taking the so-called Polar Amplification into account can lead to sub-optimal climate policies. Among the applied methods, tests for structural breaks and Unit Root structural break tests are considered. The focus is on the timing of structural breaks and the question of deterministic vs stochastic trends. In addition, tests for temporary explosiveness are also applied. Preliminary results suggest that there are spatial differences: while global and Northern hemispheric temperature anomalies are found to be temporary explosive, this does not apply to Southern hemispheric ones. To summarise, the results improve the understanding of empirical properties of important climate time series, and are highly relevant for policy.
