B1647
Title: Adversarial risk analysis for competitive business decisions with applications in banking
Authors: Daniel Garcia Rasines - Imperial College London (United Kingdom) [presenting]
David Rios Insua - CMAT-CSIC (Spain)
Roi Naveiro - Institute of Mathematical Sciences (ICMAT-CSIC) (Spain)
Simon Rodriguez - ICMAT-CSIC (Spain)
Cesar Byron Guevara Maldonado - Institute of Mathematical Sciences (Spain)
Abstract: Most business decision-making problems take place in dynamic competitive uncertain environments. Most analyses in this area are based on game-theoretic concepts and variants, with their entailed common knowledge conditions, which are hardly tenable in the proposed domain. Novel approaches are proposed concerning adversarial risk analysis concepts, methods and tools usable in competitive business contexts. Specifically, we aim at supporting one decision-maker in undertaking its decisions in presence of other agents. Theoretically, we contribute with an alternative general approach based on adversarial risk analysis, which we consider in both static and dynamic environments. We illustrate the methods in two types of general contexts of interest in the banking sector: one where the other agents are competitors and one where the other agents are attackers.
