B1401
Title: Introducing regularisation to generalised joint regression modelling and its application to football and sports
Authors: Hendrik van der Wurp - TU Dortmund University (Germany) [presenting]
Andreas Groll - Technical University Dortmund (Germany)
Abstract: When modelling the bivariate outcome of football matches and other sports, many different approaches regarding dependency have been investigated. We propose the use of copula regression via the powerful GJRM (Generalised Joint Regression Models) framework and present its use for modelling match results. Motivated by the application to football and FIFA World Cups, in particular, we introduce two types of useful penalties. The first tackles a very specific issue occurring in sports tournaments and leagues (or other competitive situations), while the second is a Lasso-approximation yielding general sparsity.
