B0625
Title: Extreme values, from theory to practice
Authors: Leo Belzile - EPFL (Switzerland) [presenting]
Anthony Davison - EPFL (Switzerland)
Abstract: Vargas state in Venezuela was hit by abnormally high rainfalls in December 1999. A naive extreme-value model gives a return period of 17 million years for the event. Previous statistical analysis have stressed the need for careful modelling of the series to account for non-stationarity and adequately quantify uncertainty. We revisit the dataset using models inspired by penultimate approximations and reviewing recent proposals in the literature for extremes of rainfall series.
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