Title: Potential output of net oil exporters after the boom
Authors: Samya Beidas-Strom - International Monetary Fund (United States) [presenting]
Abstract: Oil prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net oil exporters. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether oil windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis suggests that both actual and potential output move together with oil terms of trade, but that actual output co-moves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak oil price outlook is estimated to have subtracted 1 to 2 percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015 to 2017. The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.