Title: Real-time vs ex-post monetary policy evaluation under opportunistic policy
Authors: Steven P Cassou - Kansas State University (United States)
Jesus Vazquez - The University of the Basque Country (Spain) [presenting]
Abstract: Striking differences in impulse response results are shown when using revised and real time data under opportunistic threshold structures. Notably, the impulse responses using revised data show almost no threshold behavior differences between the two sides of an opportunistic threshold structure while real time data show significant differences between the two sides. This result is important to recognize since policy makers do not have expost revised data during their decision deliberations. As a result, economists using revised data may misread policy making behavior that can only be revealed using real time data.