B0359
Title: Estimating restricted mean job tenures in semi-competing risks data compensating victims of discrimination
Authors: Qing Pan - George Washington University (United States) [presenting]
Joseph Gastwirth - George Washington University (United States)
Abstract: When plaintiffs prevail in a discrimination case, a major component of the calculation of economic loss is the length of time they would have been in the higher position had they been treated fairly. This problem is complicated by the fact that one's eligibility for promotion is subject to termination by retirement and both the promotion and retirement processes may be affected by discriminatory practices. The semi-competing risk data are decomposed into the marginal retirement process and the promotion process conditional on that retirement has not occurred. Predictions for compensation purpose are made by utilizing the expected promotion and retirement probabilities of similarly qualified members of the non-discriminated group. The restricted mean durations of three periods are estimated - the time an employee would be at the lower position, at the higher level and in retirement. The proposed restricted mean job duration estimators are shown to be robust in the presence of an independent frailty term. Data from the reverse discrimination case, Alexander v. Milwaukee, where white male lieutenants were discriminated in promotion to captain are reanalyzed. While the appellate court upheld liability, it reversed the original damage calculations, which heavily depended on the time a plaintiff would have been in each position. The results obtained by the proposed method are compared to those of the original jury. Substantial differences in both directions are observed.
