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B1773
Topic: Contributions on spatial and spatio-temporal processes Title: Conditional risk assessment in spatial and spatio-temporal settings: Effect of covariates. Authors:  Jose Luis Romero - University of Granada (Spain) [presenting]
Ana Esther Madrid - University Centre of Defence at the Spanish Air Force Academy MDE-UPCT (Spain)
Jose Miguel Angulo - University of Granada (Spain)
Abstract: Authorities and public or private organizations devoted to studying and analyzing a wide range of real phenomena related to Geosciences, Finance, Climatology, among other fields, have the primary focus of interest on risk assessment of hazard situations, with the aim to provide prevention protocols that minimize damage to the population and material costs. A risk assessment methodology in spatial and spatio-temporal settings, based on a conditional approach, is addressed. Effect of covariates on risk evaluation is analyzed. Relations between widely used risk measures such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall, and structural characteristics of excursion sets of the underlying random field such as exceedance area or excess volume, for varying thresholds, are established. Applications of this methodology in spatial and spatio-temporal frameworks, involving the effect of covariates, are illustrated in fields such as Hydrology and Environmental Health.