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B1735
Topic: Title: Cumulative/dynamic ROC curve estimation Authors:  Pablo Martinez-Camblor - University of Oviedo (Spain)
Sonia Perez-Fernandez - University of Oviedo (Spain) [presenting]
Abstract: The ROC curve is a popular graphical method frequently used in order to study the diagnostic capacity of continuous (bio)markers. When the considered outcome is a time-dependent variable, the direct generalization is known as cumulative/dynamic ROC curve. For a fixed point of time $t$, an individual is allocated to the positive group if the event happens before $t$ and to the negative group if the event has not happened at $t$. The presence of censored individuals, which cannot be directly assigned to a group, is the main handicap of this approach. The proposed cumulative/dynamic ROC curve estimator assigns a probability of belonging to the negative (positive) group to the individuals censored previously to $t$. The performance of the resulting estimator is studied from Monte Carlo simulations. Some real-world applications are reported. Results suggest that the new estimators provide a good approximation to the real cumulative/dynamic ROC curve.