A0884
Title: Asylum seekers at the extremes
Authors: Mohammad Noori - University of Trento (Italy) [presenting]
Marco Bee - University of Trento (Italy)
Abstract: A first-hand analysis is conducted on forecasting asylum-seekers flow across seven major host countries, including the USA, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Austria, and Greece, using extreme value theory (EVT) methods. Several modeling and forecasting approaches are employed, including the Poisson count regression, generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), Bayesian GPD, and non-stationary models to estimate the expected asylum-seekers flow for each host country by 2027.
