A0794
Title: Modeling moderate and extreme rainfall at high spatiotemporal resolution
Authors: Nicolas Meyer - Universite de Montpellier (France) [presenting]
Abstract: Flood risk analysis in an urban environment requires a precise understanding of rainfall events. The specific case of the Montpellier region is presented, in which a network of rain gauges from the Montpellier urban observatory enables carrying out an initial study based on data for the period 2019-2022. As rainfall events are rare (but intense) in this region, only a few data are available. Therefore, the existing dataset is enriched with a stochastic rainfall generator. The main steps are presented in the construction of this generator: simulation of marginals according to the extended generalized Pareto distribution and simulation of the spatiotemporal dependence structure via a Brown-Resnick or r-Pareto process, taking into account physical constraints such as wind via advection. This leads to a full model for rainfall events for which a statistical analysis is proposed.
