A0587
Title: Droughts, migration and population in Kenya
Authors: Melanie Gittard - Stanford University (United States) [presenting]
Abstract: Since 2000, Kenya has faced increasing drought frequency, significantly impacting agriculture and driving labor migration. Strategic migration patterns are investigated among farmers and pastoralists in response to repetitive droughts. Using fine-grained data that captures short-distance migration and heterogeneity, it combines satellite-based daily rainfall data with exhaustive censuses from 1989, 1999, and 2009. A two-way fixed-effect model exploits spatial variation in drought frequency across 2,518 sub-locations, comparing demographic growth by drought frequency over each decade. First, increased drought frequency triggers out-migration, as one additional drought decreases demographic growth by 1.7 p.p, equating to a 1\% population decline. This effect is consistent within the [15; 65] age group, confirming migration as the driving factor. The main contribution is identifying different migration strategies across livelihoods. Rural areas dominated by pastoral activities experience significant out-migration, leading to a rural-rural shift from pastoral to agriculture-oriented regions. Herders' migration shows little heterogeneity, suggesting entire households migrate, consistent with migration as a last resort. Agricultural rural areas display significant heterogeneity, with educated individuals migrating while uneducated individuals remain in affected areas. The importance of detailed data is underscored for understanding diverse migration strategies.
