A0586
Title: Bounds and identification for the probability of causation in individual cases
Authors: Giuseppe Demuru - Università di Cagliari (Italy) [presenting]
Monica Musio - University of Cagliari (Italy)
Philip Dawid - University of Cambridge (United Kingdom)
Abstract: The purpose is to consider the problem of assessing whether, in an individual case, there is a causal relationship between an observed exposure and a response variable. When data are available on similar individuals, we may be able to estimate prospective probabilities, but even under ideal conditions, these are typically inadequate to identify the "probability of causation". Instead, bounds can be only derived for this. These bounds can be improved or amended when further knowledge is available. Current literature includes knowledge on pre-treatment covariates, unobserved confounding and mediators. New bounds are proposed for the case in which instrumental variables and/or observational data are available.
