A0537
Title: The relative importance of news and knowledge
Authors: Amy Guisinger - Lafayette College (United States) [presenting]
Michael Owyang - Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (United States)
Michael McCracken - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (United States)
Abstract: Previous studies show the Fed has a forecast advantage over the private sector in terms of inflation. The purpose is to evaluate how much of this advantage results from the Fed's knowledge of future monetary policy and how much results from the difference in the two forecasts' timing. The previous method of equalizing the Fed's and private sectors' information sets is expanded on, and it is found that Fed forecasts do not encompass those of the private sector when the two have similar information sets.
