A0281
Title: Testing extreme warming and geographical heterogeneity
Authors: Jose Olmo - Universidad de Zaragoza (Spain) [presenting]
Jesus Gonzalo - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Spain)
Lola Gadea - University of Zaragoza (Spain)
Abstract: Extreme weather events represent a critical climate risk that presents a global challenge. Understanding the heterogeneity in worldwide temperatures is vital for predicting future climate change dynamics and guiding policy responses. Both issues are addressed by proposing analytical methods to study the dynamics of extreme temperatures and their geographical heterogeneity. As a secondary focus, the finite-sample performance of Hill-type estimators of tail decay for location-scale models is examined. It is found that estimators obtained from standardized order statistics demonstrate significantly better performance for heavy-tailed distributions under substantial location effects. Applying the proposed methodology, the presence of trends in the tail decay of the distribution of annual temperatures is analyzed for eight regions covering the globe from 1960 to 2022. The empirical findings reveal that extreme warming exhibits heterogeneity across regions and seasons, with a pronounced distinction between the Northern and Southern hemispheres. Notably, extreme warming predominantly occurs in both hemispheres during the period from June to September.
