A0219
Title: Forecasting composite indicators: The role of environmental variables
Authors: Polinesi Gloria - Universita Politecnica delle Marche (Italy) [presenting]
Maria Cristina Recchioni - Universita Politecnica delle Marche (Italy)
Francesca Mariani - Universita Politecnica delle Marche (Italy)
Mariateresa Ciommi - Università Politecnica delle Marche (Italy)
Abstract: In recent years, there has been an increasing focus on evaluating well-being at the local level. Since 2013, the Italian Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) has annually published a dashboard of indicators to measure Equitable and Sustainable Well-Being (BES) for Italy, its macro-areas (NUTS-1), and regions (NUTS-2). More recently, ISTAT has provided BES indicators at the local level (NUTS-3) for the Italian provinces and metropolitan cities. The aim is to provide a more in-depth analysis of territorial inequalities and divergences across the Italian provinces. First, the main pillars of BES (economic, social, environmental, and others) are synthesized using the parameters (mode and concentration) of the beta distribution underlying multidimensional well-being. These parameters, used as proxies for territorial disparities, reveal a high degree of heterogeneity not only between Northern and Southern Italian provinces but also among neighboring ones. Along this line, to rank Italian provinces a composite indicator of well-being is constructed by using a machine learning approach. Additionally, a new measure is introduced to evaluate the importance of a single indicator in terms of how it affects Italian well-being. This measure reflects the complex and multidimensional nature of well-being, where environmental variables play a crucial role.
