A0204
Title: Trends in temperature data: Micro-foundations of their nature
Authors: Jesus Gonzalo - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Spain) [presenting]
Lola Gadea - University of Zaragoza (Spain)
Andrey Ramos - Carlos III University of Madrid (Spain)
Abstract: Determining whether global average temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact, and forecasting studies of climate change. The nature of trends is investigated in GAT building on the analysis of individual temperature grids. The micro-founded evidence suggests that GAT is stationary around a non-linear deterministic trend in the form of a linear function with one structural break. This break can be attributed to a combination of breaks on individual grids and the standard aggregation method under acceleration in global warming
