A0200
Title: An econometric analysis of agricultural production, groundwater depletion and glacier thicknesses
Authors: Alok Bhargava - University of Maryland (United States) [presenting]
Abstract: A framework is developed for assessing the sustainable production of staple crops in developing countries, taking into account their transpiration efficiency and groundwater depletion, which are critical in the wake of climate change. Moreover, recharging groundwater is important, and it is essential to monitor glacier thicknesses reflecting water storage, tackling the stochastic properties of glacier height changes assessed from remote sensing signals. First, the analysis of data on the production of rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, and pearl millet for 310 districts in India during 2000-2016, using dynamic random effects models, showed that greater rice output was significantly associated with higher well depths. Second, milk production was positively associated with well depths, indicating the need for higher water requirements for improving diet quality in developing countries. Third, an analysis of remote sensing data on changes in glacier heights for 0.5o x 0.5o grids in the Northern Hemisphere indicated large and significant declines over time; signal processing techniques induced trends in the means and variances of the series and glacier thickness reductions were generally small using in situ data. Overall, the results underscored the need for evidence-based policies that encourage the cultivation of water-efficient crops, monitoring of glaciers, and recharging groundwater to enhance food security in developing countries.
