A0192
Title: A dynamic spatiotemporal stochastic volatility model with an application to environmental risks
Authors: Philipp Otto - University of Glasgow (United Kingdom) [presenting]
Osman Dogan - Technical University Istanbul (Turkey)
Suleyman Taspinar - CUNY Queens College (United States)
Abstract: A dynamic spatiotemporal stochastic volatility (SV) model is introduced, incorporating explicit terms accounting for spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects. Alongside these features, the model encompasses time-invariant site-specific factors, allowing for differentiation in volatility levels across locations. The statistical properties of an outcome variable within this model framework are examined, revealing the induction of spatial dependence in the outcome variable. Additionally, a Bayesian estimation procedure employing the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, complemented by a suitable data transformation, is presented. Simulation experiments are conducted to assess the performance of the proposed Bayesian estimator. Subsequently, the model is applied in the domain of environmental risk modeling, addressing the scarcity of empirical studies in this field. The significance of climate variation studies is emphasized, illustrated by an analysis of local air quality in Northern Italy during 2021, which underscores pronounced spatial and temporal clusters and increased uncertainties/risks during the winter season compared to the summer season.
