A1651
Title: Structural breaks in the spatial network of real estate dynamics: A study of UK property transactions
Authors: Soudeep Deb - Indian Institute of Management Bangalore (India) [presenting]
Archi Roy - Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Pune (India)
Satyaki Basu Sarbadhikary - Indian Institute of Management Bangalore (India)
Abstract: The real estate market is a dynamic system shaped by various economic, social, and environmental factors, making the detection of structural changes crucial for understanding market trends, managing risks, and guiding investment and policy decisions. This study examines temporal changes in Greater Londons real estate market using weekly data at the MSOA (Middle Layer Super Output Areas) level through a two-stage methodology. First, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) are applied to identify significant clusters of high and low property prices and spatial outliers, which are then integrated into a network framework incorporating geographical distance. Second, structural breaks in market dynamics are detected using network Laplacians, capturing both gradual and abrupt shifts over time. These findings are further leveraged to develop a localized house price index and a data-driven zoning approach, offering enhanced tools for evaluating property prices with greater accuracy, benefiting both investors and policymakers.
