A1616
Title: Measuring geopolitical risk on energy inflation: A panel quantile approach
Authors: Cristina Amado - University of Minho (Portugal) [presenting]
Ignacio Garron Vedia - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Spain)
Helena Veiga - Uned (Spain)
Abstract: A number of the key factors affecting energy prices are addressed from both the demand and the supply side. These factors include geopolitical risks, oil prices, climate change and GDP growth. In order to investigate the effects of these factors and, in particular, of geopolitical risk on the growth-at-risk of energy inflation, a quantile regression is employed in the panel data framework using country-fixed effects. The panel covers country-level indicators for 16 OECD countries from January 1985 to December 2022. The novelty is that the focus is on the tails of the energy inflation distribution, using a methodology that combines quantile regressions and local projections.
