A0153
Title: Changes in precipitation: Trends, seasons, breaks, and memory
Authors: Harry Haupt - University of Passau (Germany) [presenting]
Abstract: Understanding precipitation processes is crucial for grasping the changing global and local precipitation patterns noted in recent IPCC reports. Precipitation variability and uncertainty are expected to rise by the mid-21st century, continuing trends in regions like the northern high latitudes and tropical land areas. Projections indicate increased mean precipitation for Asia and Polar regions, decreases for Africa and Australia, and region-specific changes in Europe and the Americas. The rise in heavy precipitation and aridity globally poses significant challenges for ecosystems, society, and water management. Detecting and attributing changes to human influences requires careful analysis of evolving climate conditions and their interaction with natural variability. The memory parameters of global precipitation over the last 60 years are investigated, taking into account level shifts, trend and seasonal patterns, and low-frequency contamination. Considerable heterogeneity is found in both the components and the memory properties of the monthly precipitation anomalies. While long-range dependence is a stylized fact of precipitation processes, it is subject to considerable uncertainty and exhibits substantial variability over specific time spans and at certain climatological and geographic locations.
