A1515
Title: Dependence of drought characteristics: Parametric and non-parametric copula approach
Authors: Ozan Evkaya - Edinburgh University (United Kingdom) [presenting]
Abstract: To better understand and monitor the effects of drought, various methods have been developed in recent decades to quantify drought characteristics. Understanding drought characteristics is essential for conducting an in-depth examination of its impacts on a specific area. That specifically requires examining the specific characteristics of drought, such as its duration or severity and including the association between these characteristics. In that respect, it is crucial to model the joint behavior of these drought characteristics. The endeavor is to investigate univariate and bivariate drought indices using both parametric and nonparametric copula techniques. For that purpose, drought characteristics, such as duration, severity, mean intensity, and peak intensity, are analysed based on different drought indices. The dependence among the main characteristics is evaluated, and corresponding bivariate return period calculations are investigated. The used data set is retrieved from monthly meteorological observations collected at five different stations in Konya, located in the Central Anatolia Region of Turkey. As explored, parametric or nonparametric copula usage may differ slightly based on the extreme drought cases. The findings of the study examine the suitability of both parametric and nonparametric dependence settings for a specific region by testing across different weather stations.
