A1430
Title: On statistical models and simulations for calculation of stockpile requirements for allergy-friendly foods
Authors: Asanao Shimokawa - Tokyo University of Science (Japan) [presenting]
Yuri Kominami - The University of Tokyo (Japan)
Abstract: Calculating adequate food reserves for disasters is an important issue for local governments in many countries. For this reason, many countries have distributed standards and simulators for calculating food reserves with nutritional considerations. However, in many cases, consideration for the rapidly increasing number of patients with food allergies has not been addressed. To address this issue, statistical models are proposed to predict the number of food allergy cases and calculate reasonable food reserves based on information on the country's age-specific population composition. The proposed model uses a prediction interval that accounts for the prediction error in the number of food allergy patients. The properties of the proposed method are compared with those of existing methods under finite samples through simulations. As an example, the simulator is proposed, which developed to calculate the stockpile requirements of allergy-free foods in Japan that considering the expected number of food allergy sufferers.
